IEA warns of peak oil demand and looming supply surplus by 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a warning that global oil production is set to exceed demand growth by 2030, potentially leading to an unprecedented surplus in supply. In its medium-term market report, "Oil 2024," the IEA predicts that oil demand will peak at nearly 106 million barrels per day by 2030, up from just over 102 million barrels in 2023. Simultaneously, oil production capacity is expected to surge to nearly 114 million barrels per day, resulting in an excess of approximately 8 million barrels per day over projected demand.

This projected surplus could have significant implications for the global oil markets, including the U.S. shale industry and OPEC+ economies. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol suggested that major energy companies might need to adjust their business strategies to align with these evolving market conditions. The report comes as the world transitions towards cleaner energy and more energy-efficient technologies, further influencing the dynamics of oil demand and supply.